【英语中国】中国“鬼城”可能没那么死气沉沉

China's 'ghost cities' may be a lot less ghostly than previously thought.

The phenomenon of eerie shopping malls and completed apartment blocks completely devoid of stirrings of Chinese life has been well-documented in Western media in recent years, from video segments to photo series and more.

But according to CLSA analyst Nicole Wong, those reports might be missing the forest for the trees--or in this case, missing the people for their timing. Ms. Wong, who recently returned from a tour of 137 projects in three Chinese cities often cited for their ghostly developments, says that the presence of empty apartments is thanks to some unusual quirks of China's real-estate landscape.

Specifically, she noted at Tuesday's CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets Investors' Forum in Hong Kong, new Chinese apartments are typically sold as virtual concrete shells that buyers must outfit, installing everything from showers to flooring to kitchen sinks to make them move-in ready. Accordingly, Ms. Wong notes, many such 'ghost' developments take awhile to gain traction--especially as it's often the sale of the land they're sitting on that allows the city to fund subsequent facilities and transportation links that will eventually help make them mature neighborhoods.

'When buildings are first completed they are actually not that habitable, so it takes a long time before most people want to move in,' Ms. Wong said.

In a report on her findings, Ms. Wong notes that buildings completed between 2008-11 in Zhengzhou, Ordos and Wenzhou--often cited as instances of an overly frothy property market--have typically seen tenants move in over a three-year period. Among such buildings, Ms. Wong's survey found an average of 48% take-up in the first 12-18 months, another 19% in the next year, and then yet another 15% in the year after that. Such a delay, she says, can be attributed to the fact that residents need time not only to fully outfit their units, but many also like to wait until their neighbors have done so as well to avoid moving in before the dust clouds and drilling sounds have subsided.

In the case of Henan's Zhengzhou--frequently dubbed China's 'largest ghost city'--Ms. Wong notes that a number of media portrayals of the city's newer areas have used photographs taken between 2010-12, before the metro system connecting the district to the city's more established neighborhoods was completed. On her most recent visit there in August, Ms. Wong said she saw many cars, 'hordes of pedestrians' and considerable ground activity in addition to curtains and air-conditioners installed in numerous residential buildings.

'I asked local people about what they think...about Zhengzhou being a ghost city and the answer is, 'What?' They don't actually have any idea they're being labeled a ghost city,' Ms. Wong said.

According to CLSA surveys, 65% of middle-income Chinese households report owning just one property, her report notes. But many such property owners aspire to upgrade or buy another, and Ms. Wong suggests they have the potential buying power to do just that, noting that 60% of them have no mortgages.

Still, while the spectral quality of some 'ghost cities' may be fleeting, other white-elephant developments built in cities with smaller populations, such as northeastern Tieling or Inner Mongolia's Ordos, are likely to continue struggling. For example, the deflation of Ordos's coal mining industry has further hurt the city's ability to draw new residents, Ms. Wong notes, spurring vacancy rates as high as 37% in certain neighborhoods, a trend CLSA expects to deepen. Some property developers have suspended work, while others have simply fled.

'Ordos people are very realistic,' she says of her visit there. 'They say it's absolutely a dead city.'

Reuters鄂尔多斯真的是一座鬼城吗？亦或人们不过是在等着搬进去？
中国的“鬼城”可能没有人们此前所想的那么死气沉沉。

近几年西方媒体用视频和照片等记录了中国的鬼城现象：商场空无一人，新建住宅完全没有人气。

但据里昂证券(CLSA)分析师王艳说，这些报道可能只见树木不见森林，或者就这个问题来说，记录的时机把握的不对。王艳近期刚参观过通常被称为鬼城的中国三个城市的137个项目。她说，住宅空置现象主要是因为中国房地产业有一些奇怪的做法。

她在周二于香港召开的里昂证券亚太区市场投资者论坛(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets Investors' Forum)上特别指出，新建中国住宅在出售时通常都是毛坯房，购房者必须自己安装淋浴设备、地板和厨房洗涤槽等各种设施，然后才能入住。王艳说，因此许多这种鬼城项目要等上一阵子才能兴旺起来，特别是城市建设后续基础设施和交通线路的资金来源于出售这些项目所在地皮的收入，这些设施建设最终将会帮助使这些项目成为成熟的社区。

王艳说，当住宅大楼刚建成时，还不适于居住，因此在大多数人想要搬进来之前还要等上很长一段时间。

王艳在她的研究报告中指出，在郑州、鄂尔多斯和温州，2008年至2011年期间建成的住宅楼的住户通常在三年时间里陆续搬入。这三个城市通常被当做房地产市场泡沫过大的代表。王艳的调查发现，在此类住宅中，建成后头12到18个月的入住率平均为48%，接下来一年会增加19%的入住率，这之后的一年会再增加15%的入住率。她说，这种延迟可能是因为住户不仅需要时间来将房子完全装修好，许多人还想等到邻居也装好后才搬入，以避免装修尘埃和噪音的侵扰。

以经常被称作中国“最大鬼城”的河南郑州为例，王艳指出，媒体对郑州新城区的一些报道使用的都是2010年至2012年拍摄的照片，而那是在连接新城区与老城区的地铁竣工之前。王艳说，今年8月她最近一次去郑州时，看到很多汽车，成群的行人，街上也相当热闹，还看到很多住宅楼安装了窗 和空调。

王艳说，我问当地人对郑州是鬼城有何感想，他们的回答是：“什么？”他们实际上并不知道自己被贴上了鬼城的标签。

王艳的报告指出，据里昂证券的调查，中国有65%的中等收入家庭自称只有一套房产。但其中很多房主都想换更大更好的房子或再买一套房子，王艳表示，他们也具备相应的潜在购买力，她指出其中有60%的人没有房贷之累。

不过，尽管一些鬼城可能开始有些人气，但铁岭或鄂尔多斯等其他人口较少的城市建造的华而不实的项目可能仍举步维艰。比如，王艳指出，鄂尔多斯煤矿业收缩，进一步打击了该市吸引新居民的能力，将部分地区的房屋空置率推高至37%。里昂证券预计这一趋势将会加深。一些房地产开发商已经暂停施工，而有些开发商则干脆走人。

她在谈到在鄂尔多斯的所见所闻时说，鄂尔多斯人非常现实，他们说这简直是一座死城。