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2013-9-26 20:14
China is looking at scaling back faster than expected the pollution that has made it the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter, according to the British economist, Lord Nicholas Stern.
In discussions about the shape of China’s next five-year national development plan for 2016-2020, “we’re hearing that the emissions might be targeted to peak by 2025”, said Lord Stern, the author of the 2006 Stern Review on the economics of climate change who has spent 25 years working in China. “I’ve not heard a peak date under discussion in China earlier than 2030 before. Now there’s a discussion of 2025,” he said in London yesterday. China’s rapid economic growth has seen it power ahead of the US to become the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, the main human-made greenhouse gas blamed for global warming. Its future emissions are therefore crucial to global efforts to tackle climate change, now on track to produce a legally binding international agreement in Paris in late 2015. Though he stressed he could not say what would end up being included in the new plan, Lord Stern said he had also heard that China might be looking at other measures that could lead to much sharper cuts in emissions than anticipated. These included targets for an absolute reduction in its emissions, rather than the current targets which primarily aim to reduce so-called emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of economic output. He also said he believed China’s use of coal, one of the dirtiest fossil fuels, was likely to peak much faster than some have predicted, and possibly earlier than 2020. “What you’ve got in China is a combination of circumstances: a leadership that regards the current model as untenable, is very concerned about climate change, and very concerned about global pollution,” he said. Lord Stern said the need for action had been made “crystal clear” in a landmark report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change being finalised in Stockholm this week and due to be released on Friday. 英国经济学家尼古拉斯?斯特恩爵士(Lord Nicholas Stern)表示，中国正在考虑以快于外界预期的速度治理污染问题。严重污染已使中国成为全球第一大温室气体排放国。
斯特恩爵士表示，在对2016年至2020年中国下一个五年期国家发展计划内容的讨论中，“我们听闻中国可能将目标设定为让温室气体排放在2025年以前达到峰值”。斯特恩爵士是2006年《斯特恩气候变化经济学报告》(Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change)的作者，他在中国工作了25年。 他昨日在伦敦表示：“我之前从未听说过中国在讨论早于2030年的温室气体排放峰值期，而现在他们在讨论2025年。” 中国的快速经济增长使中国超越美国成为了全球第一大二氧化碳排放国，这种气体被认为是导致全球变暖的主要人造温室气体。 因此，中国未来的排放目标对于应对气候变化的全球行动来说至关重要。这项行动预计将于2015年末在巴黎形成一项具有法律效力的国际协议。 虽然斯特恩爵士强调称，他无法透露中国下一个五年发展计划最终可能包括哪些内容，但他表示，他还曾听说中国可能正在考察能使减排幅度显著高于预期的其他措施。 这些措施包括设定减少温室气体排放绝对量的政策目标，而不是像现行目标那样旨在降低所谓的排放密度，或每单位经济产出排放量。 他还表示自己认为，中国的煤炭使用量很可能较某些人的早前预期更快地到达峰值，甚至可能早于2020年。煤炭是污染最严重的化石燃料之一。 他指出：“中国目前面临多种形势的共同作用：中国的领导人认为现行经济模式不可持续，他们既对气候变化问题非常关注，也高度重视全球污染问题。” 斯特恩爵士称，在联合国(UN)政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)一份具有里程碑意义的报告中，就温室气体排放问题采取行动的必要性被阐述得“极其透彻”。这份报告本周正在斯德哥尔摩做最后的修订，并将于周五正式发布。 译者/马拉 |