【英语中国】机器人或将在中国电子制造业引发革命

A new worker's revolution is rising in China and it doesn't involve humans.

With soaring wages and an aging population, electronics factory managers say the day is approaching when robotic workers will replace people on the Chinese factory floor.

A new wave of industrial robots is in development, ranging from high-end humanoid machines with vision, touch and even learning capabilities, to low-cost robots vying to undercut China's minimum wage.

Over the next five years these technologies will transform China's factories, executives say, and also fill a growing labor shortage as the country's youth become increasingly unwilling to perform manual labor. How the transformation plays out will also go a long way in deciding how much of the electronics supply chain remains in China.

It's not just traditional robot makers like Zurich-based ABB Group and Germany's Kuka AG pushing forward. Electronics suppliers in Asia such as Delta Electronics Inc. and Foxconn Technology Group are also seeking to build a better robot.

But some industry executives caution that China's automation shift will likely take years and there are plenty of challenges, including the high price of advanced robots, continuing technical limitations and even the lack of flexibility that comes with bringing robots into the factory.

'If your orders decrease, you can lay off workers,' said Tim Li, senior vice president of Taiwanese PC contract manufacturer Quanta Computer Inc. 'You can't lay off robots.'

One of the newest companies in this field, Taiwanese firm Delta, has long made power adapters for brands like Apple Inc., but last year it began a more ambitious project: to build robots cheap enough to replace human workers in China's electronics factories.

'It's clear that automation is the future trend in China, but the big question is how to bring down the costs for robots,' said Delta Chairman Yancey Hai in an interview. 'We believe we can do that because we manufacture two-thirds of the components ourselves.'

Delta is testing a one-armed, four-jointed robot that can move objects, join components and complete similar tasks. By 2016, Delta hopes to sell a version for as little as $10,000, which would be less than half the cost of current mainstream robots.

That price is also cheaper than the salary of a Chinese worker, and the robot can work around the clock.

Outside Taiwan, there are also more futuristic robots in the works designed to be easily reprogrammable and smart enough to work alongside humans without risk of injury. For instance, ABB's concept humanoid robot, Frida, has two 7-jointed arms that perform precise tasks and halt when touched by a person.

These robots are more expensive than factory workers, but the cost gap is shrinking, with China's wages rising by a double-digit percentage annually.

The advancements in robotics has led to hopes that electronics firms will bring some manufacturing back to the U.S. But industry followers say electronics assembly is likely to stay in China even as automation becomes easier because the larger component supply chain is in the country.

To be sure, robots have long been technically capable of the tasks required for final assembly: placing components on circuit boards, affixing circuit boards into casings, screwing together the casings and cleaning off the devices.

But human hands are still considerably cheaper for such jobs in China. People are also better at switching tasks than a robot, which requires reprogramming.
There are also logistical obstacles to automation.

Because of the short sales cycle of electronic devices, products are only in production for around 9 to 18 months, with production settings requiring change afterward, said ABB China Senior Vice President Chun-yuan Gu.

'There's a fast ramp up and a fast ramp down, and that is the key challenge,' he said.
Even Foxconn, the industry's loudest proponent of automation, continues to rely on city-sized factories where a total of 1.5 million workers do the bulk of the assembly of iPhones and other devices by hand. Foxconn originally planned to install 1 million robotic arms in its factories by 2014, but executives said it would take much longer to reach that target.

Automation would help companies like Foxconn that are continually beset by criticism over worker conditions. Indeed, Pegatron Corp., another Apple supplier that makes iPhones, was recently accused by New York-based nonprofit organization China Labor Watch for alleged labor rights violations.

The Taiwanese company is focusing its automation efforts on the most dangerous and laborious tasks, said Chief Financial Officer Charles Lin.

Pegatron has invested around $100 million in the past year to automate production of electronic device casings, which involves harsh chemicals.

中国正在兴起新的劳动者革命，而且与人类无关。

随着工资飞涨和人口老龄化，电子产品工厂的管理人员说，中国工厂车间里的工人被机器人取代的一天就要到来了。

新一波工业机器人正在开发中，从有视力、触觉甚至学习能力的高端人形机器人到试图以低于中国最低工资水平的成本提供服务的低端机器人，不一而足。

管理人员说，未来五年内，这些技术将改变中国的工厂，同时填补因中国年轻人越来越不愿意从事体力劳动而日渐加大的劳动力短缺。这一转变如何实现也将大大有助于确定电子产品供应链将有多少留在中国。

加紧推动这个过程的不光有苏黎世的ABB Group和德国的Kuka AG等传统机器人生产商。台达电子工业股份有限公司(Delta Electronics Inc. )和富士康科技集团(Foxconn Technology Group)等亚洲电子产品供应商也在寻求打造更好的机器人。

但一些业内高管警告说，中国向自动化的转变可能需要多年时间，而且面临众多挑战，比如先进机器人价格高昂、持续的工艺局限，甚至在将机器人引入工厂时也缺少灵活性。

台湾个人电脑外包生产商广达电脑(Quanta Computer Inc.)的高级副总裁李杜荣(Tim Li)说，如果你的定单数量下降，你可以裁员，但没法裁掉机器人。

台湾公司台达电(Delta)是这一领域的最新企业之一，一直为苹果(Apple Inc.)等品牌生产电源适配器。去年该公司开始了更具雄心的项目：生产足够便宜的机器人，以取代中国电子产品工厂里的工人。

台达电董事长海英俊(Yancey Hai)接受采访时说，显然自动化是中国未来的潮流，但重要的问题是如何降低机器人的成本。我们认为自己能做到这一点，因为我们自行生产三分之二的部件。

台达电正在测试一款由四个部分连接的单臂机器人，它可以移动物体、连接部件以及完成类似的任务。台达电希望在2016年之前销售这款机器人，价格仅为1万美元，不到目前主流机器人价格的一半。

这个价格也低于中国工人的薪水，而且机器人还可以24小时工作。

台湾以外也在开发未来主义的机器人，其目的是可以轻易地重新编程，并具有足够的智能，可以在没有伤人风险的情况下与人类一同工作。比如ABB的概念人形机器人Frida，它有两只由七个部位连接的机械臂，可以从事精细的工作，当有人触摸它时就会停止动作。

这样的机器人成本高于工厂工人的薪水，但随着中国的薪水每年以百分比两位数上涨，成本差异正在缩小。

机器人技术的进步令人寄希望于电子产品公司将把部分制造工作带回美国。但行业观察人士说，在自动化变得更容易的同时，电子产品组装可能会留在中国，因为整体上的元件供应链位于中国。

诚然，一直以来机器人在技术上都能够从事最后装配所需的任务：将元件放在电路板上，将电路板放进套子里并拧紧，以及清理设备。

但在中国，从事这类工作的人力仍然要廉价得多。工人切换任务也比机器人更容易，后者需要重新编程。

自动化还存在物流方面的障碍。

ABB中国高级副总裁顾纯元说，由于电子设备的销售周期很短，产品的生产时间可能只有9个月到18个月左右，之后生产设置就需要改变。

他说，产能迅速提升然后又急速下降，这是关键的挑战。

就连业内最为高调地支持自动化的富士康也仍然依赖规模有如城市的工厂，其中总计150万名工人手动做着大量的iPhone及其他设备的组装工作。富士康最初计划2014年之前在其工厂安装100万个机械臂，但管理人员说，将需要更长时间才能达到这个目标。

富士康等企业一直因工人工作条件的问题而饱受诟病，自动化将对这些企业有好处。事实上，另一家制造iPhone的苹果供应商和硕联合科技股份有限公司(Pegatron Corp.)不久前因被指侵犯劳动者权利而受到总部位于纽约的非营利组织中国劳工观察(China Labor Watch)的抨击。

和硕首席财务长林秋炭(Charles Lin)说，这家台湾公司将自动化措施集中在最危险和最繁重的工序上。

和硕去年在电子设备外壳的自动化生产方面投资了约1亿美元，这项工作需要和有害化学物品打交道。