【英语国际】2014年全球大势预测（下） Mapping out 2014(2)

Will China’s growth rate fall below 7 per cent?

No. China bears have had much encouragement in 2013; many are in a lather of anticipation that 2014 will bring a crash. Bad loans are piling up, the shadow financial system is in chaos and local governments are mired in debt. Overcapacity in almost every industry is crimping corporate profits. The costs of credit, electricity, water and other key inputs are all set to rise as Beijing pursues a new reform agenda. Housing bubbles in some parts of the country have already burst, while home prices scale giddy heights elsewhere. Surely these signs portend a bust? No. According to China Confidential, an FT research service, gross domestic product growth next year is likely to come in at slightly more than 7 per cent following an expected 7.6 per cent rise this year. The case for this optimistic outlook rests mainly on continued strong consumer spending, a booming service sector and what is probably the world’s least noticed key trend – the monetisation of China’s vast rural economy. James Kynge

Will Narendra Modi be India’s next prime minister?

Yes. Mr Modi of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party has the best chance of forming the government after the 2014 general election. He is ambitious, well-organised and a persuasive orator. Investors admire his performance as chief minister of Gujarat. The BJP did spectacularly well in recent state elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, partly because voters are deeply disenchanted with the Congress party that has governed at the centre for the past decade. But he is no shoo-in. The BJP has little presence in the south or the northeast of India, while Mr Modi’s reputation as a Hindu militant makes it hard for him to win support from Muslims or from the regional political parties he is likely to need help from to form a coalition. Alternatives to a Modi premiership include a government led by a more inclusive BJP leader, and a “third front” administration of regional and leftist parties. Victor Mallet

Will “Obamacare” go into a death spiral?

No. The rollout of President Barack Obama’s signature healthcare reform has been disastrously planned and executed. And it faces more glitches in 2014 – not least in integrating the online exchanges with the Internal Revenue Service and the health insurance companies. There will also be continuing furore over the millions of Americans who have lost their existing coverage. Republicans will not let up on their promise to repeal the law. But it will survive. Premiums will be higher than they should be because fewer healthier people will sign up than projected. And controversy over the law will contribute to a bad Democratic showing in the November midterm Congressional elections. But Obamacare will end the year intact, with millions of uninsured newly included in the healthcare system. Eventually Obamacare’s technical glitches will be forgotten. And it will gradually take its place alongside Medicare and Social Security as a key feature of the US entitlements system. It will be Mr Obama’s legacy. Edward Luce

Will Julian Assange and Edward Snowden still be fugitives from justice at the end of 2014?

Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, took refuge in the Ecuadorean embassy in London in June 2012 to avoid extradition to Sweden, where he faces arrest on suspicion of rape and sexual assault. Conditions in the mission are cramped. Mr Assange is restricted to living in a few hundred square feet of admittedly prime Knightsbridge property. Edward Snowden, who is wanted by the US for leaking a huge number of National Security Agency files when he was employed there as a contractor, is in altogether more comfortable digs. He lives in Moscow after fleeing the US in May and can happily explore the whole of Russia if he wants. The US authorities would dearly love to extradite Mr Snowden, not least because they still do not know how much of the NSA’s data he downloaded. The fates of the two men look like being very different. Mr Assange is much the smaller of the two fish as far as US intelligence is concerned. He is also the one most likely to give himself up this year, not least because the alternative involves staying put for another eight years until his extradition warrant expires under the statute of limitations. Mr Snowden is unlikely to be leaving Russia of his own volition for many years to come, if ever. James Blitz

Will Scotland vote for independence in 2014?

No. While the opinion polls have been volatile over the past year, there has been a consistent majority in favour of retaining the union, with the lead varying between 10 and 30 percentage points. True, some uncertainties have been introduced that could yet influence the outcome when Scotland votes next September, such as the decision to extend the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds. As under-18s are not eligible to vote in British general elections, their intentions are less easily gauged. The campaigning genius of Alex Salmond, the Scottish Nationalist leader and first minister, should also not be underestimated. Nonetheless, Scotland looks likely to vote to stay in the UK. The bigger question concerns the margin of victory for the “Better Together” campaign. It is quite possible that this may be narrower than unionists hope and insufficient to settle the question. Battle will then be resumed over the devolution of further powers to the Scottish government, with possible ramifications for the wider relationship between the component nations of the UK. Jonathan Ford

Will the value of Bitcoin fall below $50?

Yes. The price of a Bitcoin recently touched $1,200. Enthusiasts point out that the virtual currency cannot be minted at a central banker’s whim. But its value regularly moves by 10 per cent overnight. That is confounding if you strike a deal one day and pay up the next. Even on Silk Road, the secret website where Bitcoins were traded for illegal drugs, prices were generally quoted in dollars. As a currency, Bitcoin will never catch on. Chinese investors are said to favour Bitcoins as a way of evading capital controls. Others believe that prices can only go up. Yet governments could easily shut down the exchanges where virtual cash can be swapped for hard currency. China dealt a blow to investors this month with its sadistic decision not to ban the digital tokens outright but to prohibit purchases of Bitcoin. Speculators need only fear similar moves elsewhere for Bitcoin to lose its value. So, expect prices to fall. But do not bet on the timing: as Keynes pointed out, markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. Mark Vandevelde

中国经济增速会跌破7%么？

不会。2013年，看空中国者受到了极大鼓舞。许多人十分兴奋地预计2014年中国经济增速将大幅跌落。在中国，不良贷款正逐步积累，影子金融体系正处于混乱之中，而地方政府正深陷债务泥潭。几乎在所有行业，产能过剩正在蚕食企业利润。随着中国政府启动新一轮改革日程，信贷、电力、水及其他关键性投入的成本都会增加。在中国部分地区，楼市泡沫已经破裂，而在其他地区，房价却高到了令人目眩的地步。所有这一切都预示着中国经济必然走向崩盘么？答案是否定的。根据英国《金融时报》旗下调研机构《中国投资参考》(China Confidential)的研究，2013年中国国内生产总值(GDP)增速预计达到7.6%，2014年可能会略高于7%。之所以做出如此乐观的前景预测，主要理由是：中国消费支出持续强劲，服务业繁荣发展，以及中国庞大的农村经济步入“货币化”——这恐怕是最不为人注意的一个重要趋势。

纳伦德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)会当选印度下一任总理么？

会。2014年印度大选之后，印度民族主义政党——印度人民党(Bharatiya Janata)的莫迪拥有最大组阁机会。他雄心勃勃，做事井井有条，还是一位有说服力的演说家。投资者对他担任古吉拉特邦首席部长时取得的成就十分钦佩。在拉贾斯坦邦和中央邦最近举行的地方选举中，印度人民党的表现极为出色，这部分是由于选民们在极大程度上对国大党(Congress)失去了幻想——过去十年国大党一直处于政府的领导中心。不过，莫迪也不是稳操胜券。在印度南部和东北部，印度人民党几乎没什么存在感。而莫迪作为印度教激进分子的名声，令他很难赢得穆斯林及一些地方政党的支持——他可能将需要这些政党帮他组建联合政府。如果莫迪不担任总理，那么替代方案有：由一位更具包容性的印度人民党领袖领导政府，或者由地方及左翼政党组成“第三路线”政府。

“奥巴马医改”(Obamacare)会进入死亡螺旋么？

不会。美国总统巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)的标志性医疗改革，在推行上无论是规划还是执行都是灾难性的。2014年该计划将遭遇更多故障——特别是把平价医保交易网站与美国国税局(IRS)和医疗保险公司整合起来的过程。成百万失去现有医保的美国人将继续表达愤怒。共和党人不会放松撤销这一法律的承诺。然而，它将成功保留下来。医保的保费将高于应有水平，因为健康人中投保的比例将低于预期。而围绕这一法律的争议将为民主党在11月份国会中期选举中的表现制造障碍。不过，到2014年底奥巴马医改将安然无恙，成百万没有保险的人将加入这一医保体系。最终奥巴马医改中的技术故障将被人遗忘。而这一体系将逐渐与联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)及社会保障(Social Security)一道成为美国福利体制的重要特征，并成为奥巴马的政治遗产。

到2014年底，朱利安?阿桑奇(Julian Assange)和爱德华?斯诺登(Edward Snowden)还是逃犯么？

2012年6月，维基解密(WikiLeaks)创始人朱利安?阿桑奇躲入伦敦的厄瓜多尔驻英国大使馆，以避免被引渡到瑞典，否则他将在那里因强奸及性侵的嫌疑而被捕。大使馆的条件很有限。阿桑奇只能在几百平方英尺的范围内生活，尽管这里地处骑士桥(Knightsbridge)，是伦敦公认的高档地段。爱德华?斯诺登曾是美国国家安全局(National Security Agency)的一名合同工，因泄露大量该局文件被美国政府通缉，其目前的居住环境总体来看要比阿桑奇舒适得多。他2013年5月逃离美国，现居于莫斯科，只要他乐意，他可以在俄罗斯境内随意畅游。美国政府迫切希望引渡斯诺登，关键原因就在于他们仍不清楚他究竟下载了多少美国国安局的数据。这两个男人的命运看来十分不同。在美国情报部门眼中，阿桑奇与斯诺登相比只能算一条小鱼。他也更有可能在今年自首，主要是因为如果他不自首的话，他将在原地再呆八年，直到他的引渡令由于诉讼时效而到期。而未来许多年（如果不是永远的话），斯诺登则不大可能自愿离开俄罗斯。

苏格兰2014年公投的结果会是独立吗？

答案是否定的。虽然民调结果在过去一年中总是起起伏伏，但始终有多数人更愿意留在英国，他们的比例优势在10到30个百分点之间。的确，已经出现一些不确定因素，可能影响2014年9月的苏格兰公投结果，比如让16岁和17岁人群也有投票权的决定。但由于英国大选的法定投票年龄为18岁，所以这一人群的意愿较不容易判断。此外，亚历克斯?萨尔蒙德（Alex Salmond，苏格兰民族党领袖、苏格兰首席大臣）的造势天才也不容小觑。尽管如此，苏格兰公投的结果最终很可能还是留在英国。更大的问题其实在于“最好在一起”运动（Better Together，号召在苏格兰独立公投中投反对票）能争取到多大的票数优势。这一优势很可能比联合主义者们希望的要小，小到不足以解决问题。接下来，将围绕向苏格兰政府进一步下放权力再起纷争，其后果可能影响到更为广泛的英国内各组成成员之间的关系。

比特币(Bitcoin)的价格会跌破50美元吗？

答案是肯定的。比特币的价格近来一度攀升到1200美元，其拥趸指出央行人士的想象力是不足以铸造出这种虚拟货币的。可它的价格却经常在一夜之间波动10%。这让那些头一天成交、第二天付款的人不知该如何是好。即便在Silk Road（用比特币交易非法药品的秘密网站）上，比特币的价格一般也是以美元报价。作为货币，比特币永远普及不起来。据说中国投资者们偏爱比特币的理由，是它可以作为规避资本管制的方式。还有一些人相信其价格会一路上涨。但各国政府可能轻易关闭将虚拟货币兑换成实际货币的交易平台。2013年12月，中国政府作出了一个残忍的决定，他们并没有完全取缔数字代币，但禁止比特币买卖，此举严重打击了比特币投资者。投机者们只需担心一件事，就是别的地方也采取同样措施让比特币失去价值。因此，等着比特币价格下跌吧，但不要押注具体时间：就像凯恩斯(Keynes)所指出的，市场维持非理性状态的时间，可能比你维持还债能力的时间更长。