【英语财经】欧元区进入“日本化”时代 An ultra-low interest rate show that could run and run

This week, all eyes have been fixed on the relationship between the euro and the dollar. No wonder. A year ago, the eurozone was

running a tighter monetary policy than the US.

This week, however, the European Central Bank embarked on a massive new round of quantitative easing, even as American monetary policy officials such as James Bullard, head of the Reserve Bank of St Louis, signalled that they want to raise American interest rates soon.

So it is no surprise that the spread between dollar and eurozone interest rates has widened as the dollar has strengthened. “It is all about the dollar and euro [now],” Bill Blain, an analyst at Mint Partners in London argued, noting that “surveys suggest that more than 50 per cent of market participants think the euro will reach parity against the dollar before Easter”.

Investors who are obsessively watching that euro-dollar rate risk missing another, equally interesting shift under way in the markets — this time between yen interest rates and euro rates.

Over the past decade, eurozone interest rates have traded well above those in Japan. Back in March 2004, for example, the 15-year forward swap rate for euros and yen (which indicates the relative difference in yields) was about 300 basis points, and four years ago the gap was still around 150 basis points. That (obviously) reflected the fact that Japan has been mired in deflation, economic stagnation and ultra-low interest rates for more than a decade.

But the picture has suddenly — and dramatically — reversed as the yield on eurozone bonds has fallen below that of yen bonds. Right now, for example, 15-year euro-yen swaps imply that eurozone rates are 77 basis points lower those of Japan. Meanwhile, the current 10-year Bund yield is a mere 22 basis points, compared with 41 basis points in Japan, and for 30-year bonds the yields are 71 basis points and 149 basis points respectively. [can you confirm sources pls?]To put it another way, as a demonstration of Alice-in-Wonderland economics, Japan is no longer the only (or best) example. The pattern in the eurozone looks even more extreme in terms of ultra-low rates.

A UBS note to clients notes that: “Yen interest rates have been used for a long time as a benchmark for how low eurozone interest rates can go and the term ‘Japanification’ has been loosely used for a convergence of Japan’s and Eurozone’s economies as well as interest rates.” It goes on to suggest “we should probably now switch to a new term: ‘Europification’”.

It is possible that “Europification” will just be a temporary blip. One reason why eurozone rates have swung so violently this month is that the launch of the ECB’s QE programme has left the central bank with a shortage of assets to buy, pushing the price of sovereign bonds higher, with a corresponding decline in yields.

It is, however, also possible to imagine a scenario where eurozone yields remain ultra low for some time. After all, the eurozone (like Japan before it) is hovering near deflation, marred by a woeful lack of demand and fragmented political structures that seem unable to promote rapid structural reform.

If “Europification” becomes the new buzz phrase, there are at least three points that investors need to consider. First, and most obvious, ultra-low interest rates have a nasty habit of distorting markets in all manner of unexpected ways, all over the world. To understand why investors are flooding into US activist funds, angel investments, laying down wine or jumping into the art market, for example, a good place to start is by looking at ultra-low rates.

Second, such rates have a habit of breeding cynicism about market signals and mechanisms in a broader sense. Or as the late Masaru Hayami, a former governor of the Bank of Japan, observed 15 years ago, the crucial problem with zero interest rates is that they create a “zombie” mentality, removing market discrimination. (One way to make sense of the recent surge in index fund investing is as a response to ultra-low rates.)

The third key point is that once low rates become ingrained into the consumer and corporate psyche, they also become increasingly hard for policy makers to remove. It is possible that the US will buck this trend, and the reason why people such as Mr Bullard are now pushing for the Fed to act is precisely to avoid that Japanification fate.

For the moment, though, investors in global markets are confronted with a low interest rate world that looks increasingly peculiar. And potentially very volatile if, or when, this era of Japanification-cum-Europification finally comes to an end.

上周，所有的目光都集中在欧元和美元的关系上。这不足为怪。1年前，欧元区还在实行比美国更紧缩的货币政策。

然而，上周欧洲央行(ECB)启动了新一轮大规模量化宽松，而美国货币政策主管官员，如圣路易斯联储银行(Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)行长詹姆士?布拉德(James Bullard)，表示他们想在不久后提高美元利率。

因此，美元和欧元之间息差扩大，美元走强，这些都不令人意外。“（现在）一切都关乎美元和欧元，”伦敦Mint Partners的分析师比尔?布雷恩(Bill Blain)说。他指出“调查表明，超过50%的市场参与者认为，欧元与美元将在复活节（2015年4月3日——译者注）前达到平价。”

仅专注于欧元-美元利差的投资者，可能会漏看当前市场上另一个同样有趣的转变——这次是日元和欧元利率的关系。

过去10年，欧元区利率远高于日本的利率。比如，2004年3月，欧元和日元15年远期掉期利率（表明收益率的相对差异）大约是300个基点，4年前这一数字仍然在150个基点左右。这（显然）反映出日本10多年间一直深陷通缩、经济停滞和超低利率的现实。

但随着欧元区债券收益率跌至日元债券水平之下，局面突然发生了戏剧性逆转。比如，当前欧元-日元15年远期掉期利率意味着，欧元区利率比日本低77个基点。同时，10年期德国国债收益率目前仅为22个基点，日本则为41个基点；30年期德国国债收益率为71个基点，日本则为149个基点。换言之，日本不再是奇葩经济学的唯一（或者最好）例证。就超低利率而言，欧元区的情况看上去更加极端。

瑞银(UBS)在一份写给客户的报告中写道：“长期以来，日元利率一直被用作基准，来衡量欧元区利率下行的底限，人们也笼统地使用‘日本化’（Japanification，向低增长、低通胀、超低利率、经济停滞等日本经济特征转化——译者注）这个词来指代日本和欧元区经济表现及利率的趋同。”该报告接着建议：“现在我们很可能需要换成一个新词：‘欧洲化’(Europification)。”

“欧洲化”可能只是一种暂时现象。欧元区利率本月剧烈动荡的一个原因是，欧洲央行启动了量化宽松项目，使其缺乏可购入的资产，从而推高了主权债券的价格，相应压低了收益率。

然而，欧元区收益率在一段时间内保持超低水平也是可以想象的。毕竟，欧元区（像之前的日本那样）在通缩的边缘徘徊，还受到两个问题的掣肘：需求严重短缺，以及似乎无法推进快速结构性改革的各自为政的政治结构。

如果“欧洲化”变成了新的流行词，投资者至少需要考虑3点。首先，也是最明显的一点，是超低利率有一个恶习，就是在世界各地以各种意想不到的方式扭曲市场。比如，要理解为何投资者涌入美国的维权基金、天使投资、窖藏葡萄酒或者投身艺术市场，观察超低利率是一个很好的起点。

第二，超低利率往往还会从整体上催生对市场信号和市场机制的狐疑。或者就如日本央行已故的前行长速水优(Masaru Hayami)在15年前得出的结论，零利率的关键问题是营造一种“僵尸”心态，使市场失去辨别能力。（对近期指数基金投资激增的一种理解是，这是投资者对超低利率做出的反应。）

第三个关键点是，一旦低利率成为消费者和企业的固有心态，政策制定者要取消低利率就会变得愈发困难。美国可能避免陷入这一趋势，布拉德等人现在力推美联储(Fed)采取行动，也正是为了避免“日本化”的命运。

然而，就目前而言，全球市场上的投资者正面对着一个看上去越发怪异的低息世界。而且，如果日本化和欧洲化的时代最后终结，或者说当这个时代终结的时候，市场可能会变得非常动荡。

译者/许雯佳