【英语国际】朝鲜是否会改变对美政策？

CHUNG MIN LEE

At the first track-two dialogue between U.S. and North Korean officials since Kim Jong Eun's rise to power, Pyongyang hinted that a breakthrough in relations might be possible. Meeting in New York City last week, both sides discussed building trust in order to rethink geopolitics on the Korean Peninsula in the post-Kim Jong Il era.

A senior North Korean official stated that 'unlike the previous generation, the new leadership [of North Korea] wants peace and will not fight with the United States.' Another North Korean official stated that 'the recent agreement in Beijing with regard to plutonium cessation is irreversible' and that 'we will take consistent steps to ensure its success. He added that the North's plutonium program '97% has been disabled and if we reverse this, it would be a game changer. As long as both parties abide by the agreement, one can be assured that [plutonium] production is irreversible.'

In a political system like North Korea's, such statements cannot be made without explicit approval from the very top. A break from the 'previous generation' obviously refers to Kim Jong Il and by inference, Kim Jong Eun's willingness to adopt his own version of a reset with Washington.

Of course, it wasn't all sweetness and light. The North Koreans also stated that Washington must adopt a 'new mindset' to move the dialogue to the next level and that bilateral talks shouldn't be mired in sequential negotiations.

Nevertheless, a senior U.S. official welcomed such statements and responded by providing an overview of the conditions under which normalization could occur between Washington and Pyongyang. This official emphasized that if North Korea truly wants a fundamental resetting of the relationship, the new leadership in Pyongyang must take bold measures, including denuclearization and forward movement on related security issues.

If that were to happen, this official said, the U.S. together with China would be ready to provide additional security guarantees. He also conveyed to Pyongyang that 'the United States has no permanent enemies' and a new relationship is possible based on key parallel steps.

The North Koreans asserted that it was high time for the U.S. to end its hostile and discriminatory policy toward the North. If Washington signed a peace treaty with the North and dropped current sanctions, then North Korea stood ready to move forward on the nuclear issue. As in the past, the North's officials insisted that were it not for U.S. 'hostility,' they would have no reason to hold on to their 'nuclear deterrent.' Importantly, however, the U.S. official replied that there was no chance that the U.S. Senate would ever pass a peace treaty with North Korea without denuclearization.

North Korea under Kim Jong Eun faces daunting economic and political challenges. Most importantly, Kim Jong Eun has to make a fundamental strategic decision that exchanges nuclear dismantlement for normalized relations with the rest of the world, enacting meaningful structural economic reforms, and enabling his impoverished people to emulate what China and Vietnam have accomplished since they enacted their own 'open door' policies.

While U.S. officials and experts were sympathetic to Pyongyang's 'new voice,' they also emphasized that any normalization with the North can't come at the expense of the U.S.-R.O.K. alliance. Indeed, while the South Korean press continues to warn against Washington-Pyongyang ties at Seoul's expense, this is a red herring.

With a $1.2 trillion economy─Asia's fourth and the world's 14th largest─and a more globalized foreign policy than ever before, Seoul's policies are no longer driven primarily by its contest with Pyongyang. In all facets of the relationship, Seoul has won hands down. And although the alliance continues to be focused on deterrence and defense, it has expanded into a robust partnership that transcends peninsular issues.

So is the recent message from Pyongyang genuine? Perhaps, but as former U.S. President Ronald Reagan reminded the world as he sought to end hostilities with the Soviet Union, trust is always based on reciprocal and verifiable actions. And engaging with leaders who are willing to make history, such as Mikhail Gorbachev and Deng Xiaoping.

If Kim Jong Eun really wants to emulate Gorbachev or Deng, the main obstacle isn't Washington or Seoul. His real challenge lies in convincing his die-hard generals and party apparatchiks in Pyongyang that under his stewardship, North Korea can embark on a 'third way' that would retain its core political system but also reap the rewards of liberalization.

The price for normalization is the army's and the regime's sacred nuclear weapons program. If Kim Jong Eun can convince his core inner circle including his generals to bargain it away, that would represent the most significant volte face in North Korean history, and the beginning of the end of the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula. If Kim goes down this path, it would be a radical departure from his father and his grandfather. That's the deeper message that needs to be verified.

Mr. Lee is dean of the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul.

CHUNG MIN LEE

自金正恩(Kim Jong Eun)执政以来美朝两国官员举行了首次“第二轨道”外交对话。会谈期间，平壤方面暗示美朝关系取得突破性进展是可能的。两国官员上周在纽约市举行会谈，双方都谈到建立互信的问题，以便在后金正日(Kim Jong Il)时代反思朝鲜半岛的地缘政治形势。

一位朝鲜高层官员说，与上一代不同的是，朝鲜新领导层希望维护和平，将不会与美国对抗。另外一位朝鲜官员说，最近在北京就终止核计划达成的协议是不会改变的，我们将言行一致地确保协议的成功执行。他还说，朝鲜核计划有97%已经停止，如果我们重启核计划，将可能令局势发生根本性的改变；只要双方都遵守协议，大家就可以放心核计划是不会重启的。

Reuters金正恩在朝鲜这样的政治体系中，如果没有最高领导的明确批准，是不能发表这样的言论的。上一代显然指的是金正日，与上一代不同则暗示金正恩愿意以自己的方式与华盛顿建立新的关系。

诚然，双方的会谈并不总是轻松友好的。朝鲜官员还说，华盛顿方面必须调整心态，以推动对话上升到一个新的高度，双边会谈不应该陷入连续谈判的模式。

尽管如此，一位美国高层官员还是对朝鲜方面的表态表示欢迎。作为回应，这位官员还概述了华盛顿与平壤关系正常化所需要的条件。这位美国官员强调说，如果朝鲜确实希望从根本上重建两国关系，平壤新的领导层就必须采取大胆的举措，包括去核化和在相关安全问题上的积极举措。

这位官员说，假如朝鲜满足了这些条件，美国与中国将愿意提供更多的安全保证。他还向平壤方面表示，美国没有永久的敌人，在双方均采取了重要举措的基础上，建立新的关系是可能的。

朝鲜官员坚称，美国早该结束对朝鲜的敌对及歧视性政策。如果华盛顿方面与朝鲜签订和平协定并取消现有的制裁，那么朝鲜愿意在核问题上更进一步。与以往一样，朝鲜官员坚持说，若不是美国的敌对态度，他们原本不必坚持核威慑的立场。不过，重要的是，这位美国官员回应说，假如朝鲜不实现无核化，美国参议院是绝无可能通过与朝鲜的和平协定的。

金正恩领导下的朝鲜目前面临艰巨的经济和政治挑战。最重要的是，金正恩须做出基本战略决定，即放弃核计划，以此换取与其它国家关系的正常化，进行重大的结构性经济改革，让贫困的朝鲜人民像中国和越南民众一样，品尝改革硕果。中越两国自实施开放政策以来，经济上取得了很大进展。

虽然美国官员和专家对平壤方面发出的“新声音”表示赞赏，但他们也强调，与朝鲜实现关系正常化不能以牺牲美韩同盟为代价。韩国媒体不断警告说，要提防以牺牲韩国为代价建立美朝关系，但实际上这是在混淆视听。

韩国经济规模达1.2万亿美元，位列亚洲第四、全球第十四位，其外交政策的全球化程度也是前所未有。在这种情况下，韩国政策的主要驱动力已不再是它与朝鲜的较量。在与朝鲜关系的各个方面，韩国已轻松获胜。虽然美韩同盟的重点仍是威慑和防御，但在内容上已扩大至建立有力的、超越半岛问题的伙伴关系。

平壤方面最近传达的讯息真是发自内心的吗？也许是，但就像美国前总统里根(Ronald Reagan)在力求结束与苏联的敌对状态时所提醒世界的，信任的基础永远是互惠和可证实的行动。还有，要与像戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)和邓小平这样愿意创造历史的领导人进行接触。

如果金正恩真希望以戈尔巴乔夫或邓小平为榜样，现在的主要障碍不是华盛顿或首尔。他所面临的真正挑战在于说服自己手下那些死硬派军方将领和党内官员，让他们相信朝鲜可以走“第三条道路”，即既能保留朝鲜当前政治体制的核心内容，也能收获自由化的成果。

美朝关系要正常化，朝鲜就要放弃被其军方和政权视为神圣的核武器计划。如果金正恩可以说动其包括军方将领在内的核心领导班子放弃核武计划，那将标志着朝鲜历史上最重要的大转折，同时也是朝鲜半岛冷战结束的开端。如果金正恩沿这条路走下去，他将彻底背离其父亲和祖父坚守的原则。这是需要进行核实的深层次讯息。

本文作者李正民（CHUNG MIN LEE）是首尔延世大学国际关系学院的院长

（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）