【英语国际】美国太阳能产业前景蒙上阴云

The U.S. solar-energy industry enjoyed a banner year in 2011, with a record amount of generating capacity installed, but the outlook is clouded by uncertainty over federal support and a possible trade war with China over solar-power components.

Last year, the U.S. installed 1,855 megawatts of solar capacity, more than twice as much as in 2010, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade group. The big growth in solar-power installations was driven by rapidly falling solar-panel prices and other costs, which make solar more competitive with traditional sources of electricity generation, and by the year-end expiration of a federal subsidy, which compelled many companies to finish projects to take advantage of the aid.

The total solar-power generating capacity in the U.S. now totals more than 4,400 megawatts--the equivalent of four nuclear plants--but solar energy still accounts for a tiny fraction of the country's electricity generation. The industry expects installations by megawatts to increase 50% this year.

Globally, solar power faces many of the same challenges as in the U.S. Key markets such as Germany saw huge growth in recent years and now are scaling back subsidies. China, which installed more solar power last year than the U.S., also aims to cap solar development. HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC, HSBA.LN, 0005.HK), the big investment bank, expects essentially flat global growth.

In the U.S., uncertainty looms over government support for clean energy, especially solar power, in the wake of the bankruptcy last fall of Solyndra LLC, a recipient of federal loan guarantees.

The Senate Tuesday rejected an effort to renew a grant program for clean energy that began in 2009 and expired last year. The program made it easier for developers of small-scale projects to finance new installations because it gave cash grants instead of tax credits. Since its inception, the program awarded nearly $2 billion to developers of more than 22,000 solar projects. Other important tax credits for solar power remain on the books but are better suited to large developers. Many states continue with incentives and mandates that spur solar investment by utilities.

Rhone Resch, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association, said the industry could add 37,000 jobs if the cash-grant program were renewed. About 100,000 people were employed in the solar industry last year, according to an October survey by the Solar Foundation.

Despite the apparent demise of that subsidy, some analysts still say the outlook for the U.S. solar-power market in 2012 is good. Market researchers at GTM Research forecast installations this year of about 2,800 megawatts, up by about half from last year. One reason growth will likely continue is that many developers started construction on solar projects in time to take advantage of the now-expired cash grants. The full impact of the program's expiration won't hit until late this year, GTM said.

The average price of complete solar systems has fallen 35% in the last two years, largely because of cheaper components from China. For developers and consumers, that helps make solar more competitive with conventional energy. Some larger power companies, such as NRG Energy Inc. and the MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. unit of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., have stepped up investment in solar power.

But the lower prices for solar components are slamming U.S. equipment manufacturers, who are hard-pressed to compete with the low-priced imports.

Trade tensions with China could hurt the growth of the nation's solar capacity. The Commerce Department is expected next week to make a preliminary decision regarding an antidumping complaint made by the U.S. unit of a German company. The firm argues Chinese solar-equipment makers receive excessive state aid and sell their products overseas at less than fair value, a charge the Chinese side rejects.

The case has split the U.S. solar industry. Some companies, including some American solar-gear manufacturers, are eager to see duties in excess of 100% placed on Chinese solar imports. Others, including companies that develop solar projects and utilities that buy their power, fear that increasing duties and prices on imports now will make solar energy less competitive with other forms of power and lead to a dropoff in installations.

美国太阳能产业2011年发电装机容量创下纪录，经历了光辉的一年，但由于不确定联邦政府是否会继续提供支持、且中美两国可能打一场太阳能零部件的贸易战，行业前景蒙上阴云。

据太阳能产业协会(Solar Energy Industries Association)数据，美国去年太阳能发电装机容量为185.5万千瓦，为2010年的两倍以上。装机容量的大幅增长受太阳能电池板价格和其他成本快速下降的推动，因为成本下降使太阳能相对传统电源更富竞争力。另一个推动因素则是联邦政府的补助于年底到期，迫使很多企业为获得补助而尽早完工。

相关阅读在美国，接受联邦政府贷款担保的Solyndra LLC在去年秋季破产，在这之后，不知道政府是否还会继续支持清洁能源、特别是太阳能。

参议院周二拒绝延长一个为清洁能源拨款的计划，该计划从2009年开始，去年到期。这个计划使小型项目的开发者更容易为新的业务融资，因为它给的是现金拨款而不是税收减免。从启动以来，这个计划为超过2.2万个太阳能项目的开发商提供了接近20亿美元的资金。针对太阳能的其他重要税收减免措施还在，但更适合大型开发商。很多州仍在用优惠和强制措施鼓励公用事业机构投资太阳能。

太阳能行业协会会长莱斯(Rhone Resch)说，假如拨款计划时间延长，该行业本可以增加3.7万个就业岗位。太阳能基金会(Solar Foundation)去年10月进行的一项调查显示，去年太阳能行业就业人数总计约10万人。

尽管补贴看起来会终止，一些分析人士却仍说，2012年美国太阳能发电市场的前景良好。据GTM Research的市场研究人士预测，今年太阳能发电装机容量将约为280万千瓦，较去年增加约一半。太阳能行业将可能继续增长，原因之一是，很多开发商及时地开工建设太阳能项目，把握了利用拨款计划的机会（如今该计划已经到期）。GTM说，该计划到期带来的影响要到今年下半年才能完全显现出来。

过去两年中，整套太阳能发电设备的平均价格下滑了35%，很大一部分原因是来自中国的更加便宜的组件。对于开发商和消费者来说，这有助于提高太阳能发电对传统能源的竞争力。NRG Energy Inc.和MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co.等一些较大的电力公司一直在加大对太阳能发电的投资。MidAmerican Energy是巴菲特(Warren Buffett)名下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)的子公司。

不过，太阳能发电设备组件价格的下滑开始严重打击美国的设备生产商。它们被迫与低价进口产品展开竞争。

与中国在贸易领域的紧张关系可能损害美国太阳能发电能力的增长。预计美国商务部下周将针对一家德国公司在美子公司所提出的反倾销指控做出初裁。该公司称，中国的太阳能设备生产商从政府获得过度支持，以不到合理价格一半的价位向海外销售产品。中方否认了这一指控。

此案令美国太阳能行业内部出现分歧。包括一些美国太阳能设备生产商在内的一些公司迫切希望对中国输美的太阳能产品征收100%的关税。而包括太阳能项目开发商及向其买电的公共事业公司在内的其他公司则担心，现在提高进口产品的关税和价格可能会损害太阳能发电对其他形式能源的竞争力，造成太阳能发电装机容量的下降。