【英语国际】日本核事故独立调查委员会曝光“最坏假设”

An independent private panel probing the Fukushima nuclear accident unveiled a vivid account of the fear and tension that gripped Japan's top officials as they were presented with a 'worst-case scenario' that involved evacuating 30 million people from Tokyo and elsewhere.

The scenario, prepared by a top government nuclear adviser and presented to then-prime minister Naoto Kan in late March, imagined the destruction of a pool that contained huge amounts of spent-fuel at one of the reactors. Such an event would have triggered a chain reaction in its concrete foundation and the massive release of radioactive materials. The result would have been the evacuation of people as far as 155 miles from the plant, including all of the Tokyo metropolitan area.

The scenario, from Shunsuke Kondo, chairman of Japan Atomic Energy Commission, was part of a new report released Tuesday by the privately funded group called the Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation led by Yoichi Funabashi, a prominent journalist and former editor-in-chief of Asahi Shimbun, one of Japan's main daily newspapers.

Through interviews with some 300 people, including top former and current government leaders like Mr. Kan and several ministers, the panel was able to uncover the details of the accident that haven't been clearly presented to the public up until now, said Koichi Kitazawa, former head of the government's Science and Technology Agency and chairman of the committee.

For example, Yukio Edano, a key minister, told the panel that top government officials began to worry about the 'worst case scenario' even before Mr. Kondo's report was prepared. The term was mentioned frequently among leaders on March 14 and 15, as the accident set off by an earthquake and tsunami on March 11 intensified, and the fear of meltdown of nuclear fuel grew, he said.

'If No. 1 (Fukushima Daiichi) goes, No. 2 (Fukushima Daini) would go. Then we'd see a devil's chain reaction that would also knock down Tokai,' the panel quoted Mr. Edano as saying as he described his image of a worst-case scenario that involved damage to the two other nuclear plants located between Fukushima Daiichi and Tokyo. 'I was thinking, if something like that happens, common sense would tell you that would be the end of Tokyo.'

Beyond that specific report, Mr. Kitazawa said the panel learned of 'some incidences of information concealment...or information control on various levels of administration, driven by the consideration 'not to cause panic among the public.'' The panel, including more than 30 scientists, doctors, lawyers and journalists, had a mission to look into the aspects of the accident that may be overlooked, or avoided, by a government's investigation committee that has been probing the accident separately.

调查福岛核事故的一个民间独立委员会发布报告，生动描述了日本高层官员面对事故“最坏假设”所表现出来的恐惧与紧张。按照这个设想，东京及其它地方当时需撤离3,000万人。

这个假设由日本政府一名高级核顾问提出，去年3月下旬报呈时任日本首相的菅直人(Naoto Kan)。其具体内容是假设福岛核电站一个反应堆的乏燃料池(其中存储着大量乏燃料)的毁灭。如果这一幕真的发生，将会触发反应堆的混凝土地基发生连锁反应，放射性物质将大规模泄漏，距福岛核电站最远155英里(约合248公里)的人们都需要撤离，包括东京大都市圈内的所有人。

这个设想是由日本内阁府原子力委员会(Japan Atomic Energy Commission)委员长近藤骏介(Shunsuke Kondo)提出的，是上周二名为“一般财团法人日本再建”(Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation)组织新发布报告的一部分。这个组织由知名记者、日本主流日报《朝日新闻》(Asahi Shimbun)前主编船桥洋一(Yoichi Funabashi)担任理事长，运营资金来自民间。

隶属于日本政府的科学技术振兴机构(Science and Technology Agency)前任理事长、现为此独立委员会委员长的北泽宏一(Koichi Kitazawa)说，通过对约300人的采访(包括前任与现任政府领导人，如菅直人和几位大臣等)，这个委员会揭示了福岛核事故的细节，而在此之前，这些细节并没有清晰地展现在公众面前。

比如，担任日本重要部门大臣一职的枝野幸男(Yukio Edano)对调查委员会说，日本政府高官早在近藤骏介着手准备报告之前就已经开始担心“最坏假设”了。枝野幸男说，3月11日地震和海啸引发福岛核事故后，事故的严重程度不断加剧，人们对核燃料熔化也愈发担心，3月14日和15日这两天，“最坏假设”这个词被日本领导人频繁提及。

调查委员会援引枝野幸男的话说，如果福岛第一核电站(Fukushima Daiichi)完了，福岛第二核电站(Fukushima Daini)也会不复存在，然后就会出现可怕的连锁反应，东海(Tokai)地区就完了。枝野幸男当时是在描述他所设想的最坏情况。按照他的假设，位于福岛第一核电站和东京之间的另外两座核电站也将受损。他说，我当时想，如果真出现这种情况，一般认为那就是东京的末日。

北泽宏一说，除发布了这份具体报告外，调查委员会还获悉，受“不要造成公众恐慌”想法的驱使，日本各级行政机关都存在隐瞒或管制信息的情况。这个调查委员会当中有30多名科学家、医生、律师和记者，他们的任务是调查可能被政府调查委员会忽视或回避的事故细节。这个政府委员会一直在对福岛核事故进行调查。